Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db0d43dc5be6a4bb416bfddfda0f5f2ce6f43e7211eaa99aa425c436b7180f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,681$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 61c | 649.64$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.1 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 54c | 587.34$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.16 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 556.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…c0afbacked Yes | 6c | 544.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 71c | 287.63$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 261.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 36c | 250.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 237.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 232$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 162.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 8c | 149.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 147.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 50c | 147.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…a387backed Yes | 39c | 144.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 52c | 139.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed Yes | 67c | 138.94$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 130.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 49c | 124.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 124.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 105.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 93.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 92.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 74c | 91.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 47c | 82.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 76.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 74.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 53c | 69.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 48c | 65.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 59c | 58.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 58.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 18c | 56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 53.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 47c | 50.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 49.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 57c | 47.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 31c | 45.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 51c | 44.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 56c | 44.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 41.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 40.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 50c | 40.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed Yes | 63c | 40.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…43a7backed Yes | 39c | 39.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 52c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 51c | 37.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 47c | 35.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 58c | 35.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 48c | 33.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 33.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 32.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 51c | 30.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 42c | 29.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 51c | 29.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 60c | 28.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 51c | 28.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 48c | 28.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 77c | 27.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 27.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…6c60backed Yes | 54c | 27.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 26.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…77ffbacked Yes | 57c | 26.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 45c | 25.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 24.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 24.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…f297backed Yes | 51c | 23.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 52c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 72c | 18.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.