TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,897 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes1c1,681$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.663633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes61c649.64$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.131043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes54c587.34$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.167628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c556.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.315,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25e9…c0afbacked Yes6c544.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No71c287.63$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6317553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c261.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.214,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No36c250.6$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c237.34$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.686,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c232$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No58c162.18$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.262,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No8c149.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.381,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes16c147.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.283,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes50c147.28$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6743139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaafb…a387backed Yes39c144.73$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-74.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes52c139.65$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7346240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4320…4a44backed Yes67c138.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932536%9 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c130.11$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No49c124.77$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1710966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes50c124.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.951,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes43c105.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.051,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.761,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No57c93.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No56c92.3$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.512,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes74c91.06$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9822171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes47c82.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.611,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No40c78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c76.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.095,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No31c74.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes49c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3417241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c69.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes53c69.34$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No48c65.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No59c58.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.042,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No39c58.74$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.983,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No23c57.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19bc…eae5backed No18c56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes56c55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c53.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.311,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No47c50.96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0184930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2125335.2%89 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No57c49.77$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.62,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes57c47.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273056.7%17 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No42c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.452,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes63c47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6133561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes31c45.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.183938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes51c44.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No56c44.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7920958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No44c41.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.22,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes57c41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.441346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes48c40.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No50c40.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.372,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…7b51backed Yes63c40.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.32365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes45c39.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4588…43a7backed Yes39c39.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No52c37.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes51c37.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1515558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No39c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.961,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes47c35.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5930652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x237b…9f36backed No58c35.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.943262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes48c33.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3555538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes49c33.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.34,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c32.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No47c32.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.161,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No51c30.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.755,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes50c29.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.925261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes42c29.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.522454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes51c29.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes60c28.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No51c28.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0422853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes48c28.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5827130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f33…da59backed Yes77c27.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.465658.9%33 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No44c27.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.532,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eae…6c60backed Yes54c27.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No65c26.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.321,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03b6…77ffbacked Yes57c26.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked No45c25.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.882123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-51.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe985…8cc8backed Yes50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c24.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.051,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No49c24.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.532,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes51c24.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.374,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbc21…f297backed Yes51c23.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.413,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes52c20.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.662951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…7f8abacked No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.84463.6%28 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.840237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80db…4a73backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104951%25 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.812458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No57c19.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5668645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes72c18.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0342849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.