Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b1bc39da0d8f685cf6b721c715a55a8ddb336967dece83c7694a43aa57fbddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 34c | 837.55$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.81 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 66c | 808.94$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.35 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 653.49$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed No | 68c | 577.28$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 552.33$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…c0afbacked No | 2c | 527.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 328.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 308.41$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 5c | 282.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.75 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked No | 19c | 276.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 262$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 232$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 154.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 141.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 29c | 141.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…a387backed No | 71c | 140.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 137.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 38c | 123.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 18c | 117.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 32c | 112.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 12c | 109.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 104.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 99.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 99.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 16c | 97.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 94.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 59c | 89.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 87.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 36c | 81.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 27c | 77.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 72.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 70.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 69.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 68c | 68.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 30c | 67.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 64.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 33c | 61.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 34c | 59.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 34c | 58.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…d0f6backed Yes | 23c | 58.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…7137backed Yes | 25c | 56.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 33c | 48.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 54c | 47.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 78c | 46.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 44.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 43.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 31c | 43.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 40.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 40.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 31c | 39.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 31c | 39.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 38.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 38.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 37.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 36.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 35.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 75c | 34.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 71c | 34.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 58c | 34.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 65c | 32.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 48c | 29.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 75c | 29.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 28.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 72c | 24.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 24.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 23.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 74c | 19.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 70c | 16.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 15.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.