Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc0eae21a78cb0f78ec7bf054ab98b4ee13fc3910ff072b3e115112c285608e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,833$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 2,674$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,948$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 13c | 801.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 8c | 675.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…40a1backed Yes | 18c | 550.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 264.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 13c | 254.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 241.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 225.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 209.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 208$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 198.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 196.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 195.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 11c | 165.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 14c | 157.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 155.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 154.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 15c | 154.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 8c | 149.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 15c | 145.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 10c | 140.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 21c | 134$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 11c | 132.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 119.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 112.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 110.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…7baebacked Yes | 15c | 93.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 74c | 72.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 27c | 72.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 75c | 35.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 31.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…8eb5backed No | 80c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…bbbebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 79c | 18.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.