TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes0c10,704$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5722740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes16c1,031$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.771,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes8c610.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7942820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes34c416.63$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes7c392.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.374,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c389.38$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.482,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes36c369.76$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1118629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c354.46$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes30c334.18$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes17c314.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8620327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes17c310.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.762,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes37c282$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d24…5257backed Yes40c248.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No74c222.72$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.633,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9047…2959backed No70c211.03$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.914257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes19c210.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.791,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed Yes31c202.64$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6521352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.941,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No75c193.94$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.344,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes34c184.14$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.611,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x547d…b1d8backed Yes31c180.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.97450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+130.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No69c162.79$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0928737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes21c159.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes29c150$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes39c148.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes40c142.25$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c141.55$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes19c123.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.142849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes33c120.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.891040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c118.11$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.881,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce1…3a27backed Yes15c113.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.671060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c111.93$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes20c111.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.741051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes33c110$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.428247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes28c105.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes17c105$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4520027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes49c103.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.59548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.26634.8%23 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes21c99.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7531936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed Yes51c97.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…e027backed Yes29c84.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes21c83.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.978641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c80.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.814,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes35c80.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes32c79.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.721,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c79.17$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.915,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No61c77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No63c74.37$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3635344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes33c71.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.111,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes19c67.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c65.2$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.219,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No69c61.73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes33c61.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7870…e1a7backed Yes25c60.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.695,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes20c56.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.987552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes28c52.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8758152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes32c51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3235137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9244646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.543559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2112853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.753,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes22c49.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.042,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes32c47.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1357948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c46.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.196,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf75f…b458backed Yes32c44.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.154452.3%23 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+12.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes31c42.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No68c41.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1711844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes49c40.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No80c40.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2246667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No69c40.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.397152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.316550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb7…e027backed Yes36c39.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.381323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes27c38.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5687437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No70c38.12$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4426256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No65c38.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.280957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No73c37.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.999960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No66c37.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4928244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes28c37.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.422,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6283…3e7abacked Yes34c36.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.432231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x554e…b670backed Yes28c35.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.084757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed Yes32c35.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4112052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No69c34.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked No78c32.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1715868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes43c31.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6714645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes35c31.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No67c30.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.92,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed No52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.413035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No70c28.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.521,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No65c26.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4214934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.