TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,879 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x92e3…ab49backed Yes29c2,778$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.867138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c1,527$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.32,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c934.68$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.928,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No2c848.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No66c566.02$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.961,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No46c527.53$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.022,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes37c516.26$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.07825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c408$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.723,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c378.74$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No20c368$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.975,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes38c352.16$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.865,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29e9…8be2backed Yes43c351.03$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.62642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes76c322.98$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.917859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No25c310.36$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.682,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1596620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee88…49a4backed No11c284$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.966543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No31c280.25$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.033,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes32c279.31$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.931,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes51c251.66$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.132,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c249.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No34c224$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.581,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes36c199.43$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7931936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c181.78$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.31,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No19c179$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.25,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba2d…d402backed Yes31c156.25$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.05944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No67c155.35$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c150$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes33c149.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.763930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes33c149.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6715128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes35c148.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7530332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No31c141.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.051,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No35c140$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.734,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes33c139.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0337417.4%65 W · 309 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No58c133$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5726265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No56c132.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes27c130$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes33c128.43$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.594,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes35c126.77$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.47347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes28c125.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.611,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c118.81$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.75,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x576d…adddbacked No66c114.63$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No18c108.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0441760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5970…c99bbacked Yes35c108.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.291050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No20c100.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.924,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7317255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1249646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c97.58$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c95.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.032,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes32c95.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No45c95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.62,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No67c95$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4526067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa30c…ebb2backed No50c93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes55c91.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.619551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed Yes26c91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3428455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes77c87.18$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.069548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52fe…c258backed Yes41c85.24$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.354141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No56c83.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6516550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No69c74.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No69c74.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.623,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes41c74.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.121,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No64c73.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1435344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No24c72.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.072,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes33c72.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.354335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes42c68.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.118629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bb4…a3d2backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.672334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No16c65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6817165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No64c62.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes34c61.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5887629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No54c61.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0461760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes36c61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.152326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No71c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.390555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.393,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes67c59.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.516,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No49c58.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.811,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No69c57.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4068867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No71c56.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c54.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.432,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes33c54.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3220144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes66c53.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.364362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3518131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b9…9772backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x023d…3431backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24dc…61afbacked No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No37c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No65c46.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4212157%69 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes69c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c44.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.11,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f7…b1a8backed No65c44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.386566.2%43 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No72c42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0358358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes76c41.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.926439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes36c39.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.033,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes40c38.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.489951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes33c38.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.699741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3147…9145backed Yes39c38.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.121457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes36c36.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2917831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.