TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuclear TigeRESof Nuclear TigeRES, K27
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$201,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,378 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked K2749c9,276$4,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,565.175,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed K2749c6,384$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,140.162,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed K2733c5,990$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.1712627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Nuclear TigeRES45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.989551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Nuclear TigeRES49c3,513$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,791.4766851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed K2749c3,462$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37d9…9b1ebacked Nuclear TigeRES47c3,459$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed K2752c3,300$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7145459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked K2756c3,085$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.51,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed K2751c2,917$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuclear TigeRES48c2,900$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.981,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x316c…8da9backed Nuclear TigeRES54c2,646$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nuclear TigeRES53c2,239$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.221,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Nuclear TigeRES52c2,000$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.9757641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc790…cbd2backed Nuclear TigeRES51c1,910$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.811838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed Nuclear TigeRES35c1,885$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.931637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8263…e57ebacked Nuclear TigeRES52c1,788$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed K2754c1,746$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.636,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Nuclear TigeRES54c1,698$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.482,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Nuclear TigeRES50c1,624$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8126243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked K2741c1,601$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.3119546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Nuclear TigeRES50c1,580$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79060853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x685f…c586backed Nuclear TigeRES52c1,551$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.637464.9%48 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed K2746c1,541$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.8614051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed K2754c1,500$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.184,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed K2746c1,445$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.3611633.6%39 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed K2751c1,311$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67018748.1%90 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked K2761c1,264$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.031,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd406…2fc9backed K2753c1,253$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed K2746c1,250$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5751,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed K2748c1,175$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.622,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48b3…d21cbacked Nuclear TigeRES42c1,133$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.911546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Nuclear TigeRES68c1,133$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.9463157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked K2758c1,128$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.083,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b0…40b0backed Nuclear TigeRES42c1,125$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+120.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked K2735c1,116$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.9736645.6%167 W · 199 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…acc1backed Nuclear TigeRES41c1,069$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.951668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+42.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked Nuclear TigeRES50c1,064$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.861662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Nuclear TigeRES50c1,057$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.6822044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Nuclear TigeRES49c1,031$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.7425344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked K2751c1,022$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.981,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed Nuclear TigeRES65c1,001$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.4115264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed K2735c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed K271c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3355…dd2fbacked Nuclear TigeRES53c999.55$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.311643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Nuclear TigeRES50c996.98$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.4913844.2%61 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed K2750c995.46$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.4861837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Nuclear TigeRES50c904$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45227548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c5b…b82bbacked K2766c862.02$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.33658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed K2751c859.97$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.6955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed K2737c799.98$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.995044%22 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked Nuclear TigeRES43c799.98$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.9915449.4%76 W · 78 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed K2715c750.5$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.556354%34 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Nuclear TigeRES51c737.74$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.1432348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed K2747c699.99$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.9960848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed K2750c651.75$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.8710359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa2…6df9backed Nuclear TigeRES51c650.04$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.7916245.7%74 W · 88 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed K2751c630.19$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.2150051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed K2749c616.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed K2755c609$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.6227156.1%152 W · 119 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb065…60ccbacked K2768c586.7$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.182944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed K2751c585.86$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30096545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked K2750c550$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27517240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed K2737c536$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.185,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Nuclear TigeRES54c534$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.6417250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked K2759c529.05$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.895,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…34c0backed Nuclear TigeRES42c523.44$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.442254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked K2748c520.29$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9624562%152 W · 93 L+21.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x757d…1496backed Nuclear TigeRES50c517.08$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.0424649.6%122 W · 124 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed K2750c505.09$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5526155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Nuclear TigeRES50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25038052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed K2744c496.03$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.222,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked K2740c494.34$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2445238.3%173 W · 279 L-29.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30fe…e31dbacked K2746c484.65$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Nuclear TigeRES50c465.29$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8135947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked K2754c463.8$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25022751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed Nuclear TigeRES50c437.2$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1918054.4%98 W · 82 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Nuclear TigeRES46c430$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.221247.6%101 W · 111 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f4…bd70backed Nuclear TigeRES54c419.79$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.793154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed K2770c416.35$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6318261.5%112 W · 70 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked K2736c410.02$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.551,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd2…0abfbacked Nuclear TigeRES49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.167843.6%34 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…1398backed Nuclear TigeRES49c404.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Nuclear TigeRES76c393.23$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8320462.7%128 W · 76 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked K2751c392.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013351.1%68 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd186…ed6ebacked Nuclear TigeRES51c385$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.652445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed K2739c383.3$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4214749.7%73 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nuclear TigeRES45c382.24$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.031,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Nuclear TigeRES49c375$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2532139.9%128 W · 193 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed K2740c354.96$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6320242.1%85 W · 117 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Nuclear TigeRES54c353.84$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.2362738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed K2747c340$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.831731.9%101 W · 216 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Nuclear TigeRES71c334.39$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9717460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked K2739c329.16$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.723,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Nuclear TigeRES44c325$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18233340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Nuclear TigeRES48c320.51$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.1125147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked K2752c314.23$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16326546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd976…7636backed Nuclear TigeRES49c307.48$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4811155%61 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Nuclear TigeRES50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15063541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed Nuclear TigeRES50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15023146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.