Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dea195cee059f398108c624b1db9505f8ec5dd99b4a573072bc0bb64c154760

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: HULIGANIof Natus Vincere, HULIGANI
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,329 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6b97…8d30backed HULIGANI	54c	5,420$2,909 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,511.36	362	48.6%176 W · 186 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere	46c	2,119$977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976.52	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Natus Vincere	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed HULIGANI	51c	1,518$774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$744	211	46.9%99 W · 112 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed HULIGANI	48c	1,346$647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$698.16	122	50%61 W · 61 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere	46c	1,087$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1,210	57.1%691 W · 519 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked HULIGANI	47c	1,056$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$559.5	255	49%125 W · 130 L	+9.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Natus Vincere	46c	869.57$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	93	40.9%38 W · 55 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed HULIGANI	53c	718.15$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$340.15	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa57e…ed54backed Natus Vincere	46c	604.35$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0caa…c16cbacked Natus Vincere	49c	591.84$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Natus Vincere	48c	518.75$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	111	54.1%60 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed HULIGANI	50c	516.8$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.4	557	51.7%288 W · 269 L	+16.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.9	1,164	47.2%549 W · 615 L	-29.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Natus Vincere	47c	489.16$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.91	149	43.6%65 W · 84 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Natus Vincere	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	116	56%65 W · 51 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…7db2backed Natus Vincere	46c	330.43$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked HULIGANI	52c	304.38$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.1	614	49.5%304 W · 310 L	+9.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked HULIGANI	53c	246.08$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.09	1,154	47.7%550 W · 604 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…6182backed Natus Vincere	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.2wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd10f…bef4backed Natus Vincere	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f7…71d2backed Natus Vincere	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2b…d422backed HULIGANI	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	148	45.9%68 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere	52c	200$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	513	64.9%333 W · 180 L	+16.4wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Natus Vincere	52c	191.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Natus Vincere	49c	167.35$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	146	43.8%64 W · 82 L	-8.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed HULIGANI	52c	167$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.16	97	44.3%43 W · 54 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Natus Vincere	51c	147.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	864	51.7%447 W · 417 L	+20.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed HULIGANI	62c	141.05$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.6	745	49.3%367 W · 378 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6b…a307backed Natus Vincere	38c	141.05$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x829a…78fcbacked HULIGANI	50c	119.61$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.61	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Natus Vincere	50c	109.3$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Natus Vincere	46c	104.5$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.07	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked HULIGANI	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	142	59.9%85 W · 57 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x628f…a6bcbacked Natus Vincere	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Natus Vincere	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	418	64.1%268 W · 150 L	+17.2wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed HULIGANI	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	241	38.6%93 W · 148 L	-18.0wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Natus Vincere	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	372	52.7%196 W · 176 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2338…27f6backed Natus Vincere	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	114	44.7%51 W · 63 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x009c…049bbacked Natus Vincere	49c	81.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8961…64cebacked Natus Vincere	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…980abacked Natus Vincere	50c	66.53$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Natus Vincere	48c	65$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	529	50.9%269 W · 260 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked HULIGANI	57c	62.47$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.92	161	47.2%76 W · 85 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed HULIGANI	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed HULIGANI	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	253	54.5%138 W · 115 L	+13.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2975…0aafbacked Natus Vincere	53c	55.66$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9c…5369backed HULIGANI	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	114	50%57 W · 57 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d3…fc0ebacked Natus Vincere	46c	55.56$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.56	125	44%55 W · 70 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed Natus Vincere	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-5.5wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd24c…3f33backed Natus Vincere	48c	43.69$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed HULIGANI	47c	42.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.56	92	39.1%36 W · 56 L	-6.7wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x97ee…1f82backed Natus Vincere	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9147…baccbacked Natus Vincere	52c	39.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.73	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5305…97fcbacked Natus Vincere	49c	38.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Natus Vincere	47c	38.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	390	42.1%164 W · 226 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed HULIGANI	52c	38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.24	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce8…2686backed HULIGANI	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	145	66.2%96 W · 49 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4228…b838backed Natus Vincere	52c	36.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Natus Vincere	46c	31.94$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…6ef5backed HULIGANI	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-21%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed Natus Vincere	49c	28.57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	321	54.8%176 W · 145 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)this page
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsHULIGANI won
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 WinnerHULIGANI won
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event