TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
HULIGANIof Natus Vincere, HULIGANI
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$348,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$385,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere64c51,006$32,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,519.761,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Natus Vincere57c41,681$23,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,629.3432549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked HULIGANI28c31,090$8,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,520.5689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere65c16,837$11,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,025.6496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Natus Vincere71c12,437$8,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,8551,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed HULIGANI30c11,025$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,727.5429042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked HULIGANI33c10,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,70024246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed HULIGANI30c10,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,999.9947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed HULIGANI30c9,000$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,33069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed HULIGANI45c8,672$3,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,766.8343344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Natus Vincere57c7,403$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,252.9338855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Natus Vincere66c5,927$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,906.8153764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed HULIGANI30c5,012$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,516.2131248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked HULIGANI30c4,715$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,300.525549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Natus Vincere70c4,286$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00021650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked HULIGANI66c3,503$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.5341242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked HULIGANI41c3,301$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.591,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed HULIGANI39c3,289$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.4133041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed HULIGANI38c2,953$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830.8310051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked HULIGANI27c2,800$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked HULIGANI46c2,726$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.8123561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed HULIGANI31c2,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.9957449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Natus Vincere61c2,440$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49819251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…698cbacked HULIGANI41c2,414$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.367652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed HULIGANI35c2,315$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.931,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked HULIGANI32c2,310$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.411,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Natus Vincere66c2,298$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.5121158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed HULIGANI41c2,268$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.7111551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Natus Vincere74c2,226$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.298360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed HULIGANI43c2,140$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.1233453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked HULIGANI32c2,041$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.1899844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Natus Vincere73c1,900$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.9912141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked HULIGANI44c1,868$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.622031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked HULIGANI40c1,814$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.8825143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked HULIGANI38c1,656$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.831,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed HULIGANI26c1,625$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.6817651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed HULIGANI36c1,519$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.0415050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Natus Vincere1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%0 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Natus Vincere58c1,500$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.6654058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed HULIGANI50c1,458$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.8969132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed HULIGANI70c1,446$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.1771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked Natus Vincere48c1,404$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.262171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere53c1,400$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed HULIGANI46c1,280$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.471,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked HULIGANI38c1,146$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.471,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Natus Vincere67c1,129$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.121225%3 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed HULIGANI39c1,113$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.3754246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Natus Vincere48c1,100$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.179242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Natus Vincere61c1,099$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66612253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9548…78d6backed HULIGANI34c1,037$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.76977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick47cpaid+71.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Natus Vincere72c1,035$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.9586659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked HULIGANI45c1,003$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.5419338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed HULIGANI49c1,000$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.8251140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed HULIGANI31c1,000$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.8558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f1…45e1backed HULIGANI46c978.26$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.261070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed HULIGANI47c975.89$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.226663.6%42 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked HULIGANI41c941.65$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.6520859.6%124 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Natus Vincere46c939.41$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.6489238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Natus Vincere27c923.95$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked HULIGANI45c915.86$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.421,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked HULIGANI35c870$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.510653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed HULIGANI73c858.17$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.7530356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Natus Vincere70c847.9$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.488250%41 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked HULIGANI46c832.28$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.6550749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere65c806.32$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.561,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked HULIGANI26c783.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.2822438.8%87 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Natus Vincere68c768.72$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.7315150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed HULIGANI28c749.97$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked Natus Vincere72c722.62$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.668538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Natus Vincere56c712.46$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.4822461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere51c698.3$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.391,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed HULIGANI33c693$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.3135737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1c…90d2backed Natus Vincere71c667.98$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick62cpaid-59.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Natus Vincere75c650$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.525547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703e…9828backed HULIGANI38c648.25$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.767437.8%28 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed HULIGANI31c640.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5224244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Natus Vincere74c639.73$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.1291553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Natus Vincere47c593.4$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.2166545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed HULIGANI46c585.08$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.0245352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Natus Vincere68c584.32$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.047251.4%37 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed HULIGANI77c579.68$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1420767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd33a…1fe2backed HULIGANI54c558.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.991060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+55.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked HULIGANI45c542.53$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.1677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed HULIGANI39c542.51$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.341,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed HULIGANI29c517$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.0748054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed HULIGANI38c516.71$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.916152.2%84 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Natus Vincere56c512.99$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.2888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Natus Vincere8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4065625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed HULIGANI46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27060251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed HULIGANI26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37037655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18551364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed HULIGANI51c500$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.7518446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed HULIGANI26c499.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.9937745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked HULIGANI36c480.68$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.0813647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91cc…f388backed Natus Vincere67c480.64$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3241650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5480…b38cbacked HULIGANI34c479.68$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.083135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfeb…763ebacked HULIGANI33c478.86$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.1411535.7%41 W · 74 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Natus Vincere67c471.18$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.713764.2%88 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked HULIGANI37c463.19$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.0156945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Natus Vincere67c447.01$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.