MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7cb3fa85fcf136d6a537738883d0bcc943ccc0d3c81770e7871639327c1407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Padres, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yankees | 64c | 20,374$12,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,377.46 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Padres | 53c | 15,079$7,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,951.48 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Padres | 36c | 14,608$5,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,258.88 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Yankees | 45c | 14,394$6,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,922.56 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Padres | 48c | 3,709$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.13 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yankees | 53c | 3,034$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.68 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Padres | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…dcafbacked Yankees | 62c | 2,572$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Yankees | 48c | 2,259$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.49 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Yankees | 63c | 2,139$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.32 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Padres | 38c | 1,976$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.19 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yankees | 51c | 1,967$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.18 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Yankees | 64c | 1,932$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.82 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Padres | 37c | 1,815$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.02 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Padres | 36c | 1,742$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.09 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yankees | 63c | 1,688$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.25 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Padres | 38c | 1,624$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.21 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Yankees | 80c | 1,623$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.53 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yankees | 63c | 1,597$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.21 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Padres | 38c | 1,576$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.32 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yankees | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yankees | 44c | 1,428$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.33 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Padres | 39c | 1,295$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Yankees | 59c | 1,247$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.26 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Padres | 37c | 1,038$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.79 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yankees | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Padres | 36c | 848$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.28 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres | 37c | 785.6$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.28 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Padres | 37c | 675.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Padres | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Padres | 51c | 586.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Yankees | 63c | 450$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Padres | 37c | 422.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.32 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Padres | 34c | 417.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Padres | 46c | 381.85$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.65 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Padres | 37c | 376$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Padres | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Padres | 43c | 256.66$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yankees | 54c | 253.52$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Padres | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yankees | 65c | 167.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yankees | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yankees | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Padres | 36c | 147.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Padres | 38c | 131.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b06…5d05backed Padres | 38c | 105.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Padres | 38c | 104$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…d40cbacked Padres | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Padres | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Padres | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…8f1bbacked Padres | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Padres | 38c | 97.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yankees | 63c | 88.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yankees | 65c | 79.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1eedbacked Padres | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Padres | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Yankees | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Padres | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Yankees | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Yankees | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yankees | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yankees | 64c | 40.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…a5fbbacked Padres | 63c | 39.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Yankees | 56c | 28.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…7c8cbacked Yankees | 58c | 27.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Yankees | 61c | 26.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…993dbacked Padres | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Padres | 48c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…3e65backed Padres | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Yankees | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yankees | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Yankees | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.