Fifa International · resolved market
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7f5a8c2a41ed605661ff9ef85047b366648f74a668c70e2bb952af6d9050de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed No | 59c | 1,488$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.39 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 62c | 1,089$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.35 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…b58fbacked Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 33c | 590.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.43 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 295$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.05 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a9…71a7backed Yes | 67c | 263.15$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 66c | 222.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 173 | 57.8%100 W · 73 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 10c | 192.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 130.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 118.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 68c | 108.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 34c | 97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…6de4backed Yes | 64c | 93.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b25…ff39backed Yes | 41c | 91.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…7f1abacked Yes | 41c | 87.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 33c | 83.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…c4afbacked Yes | 41c | 82.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…ecc7backed Yes | 41c | 76.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…55d6backed Yes | 41c | 76.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 60c | 74.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 42c | 66.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 65.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…ebbebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked Yes | 48c | 61.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…0035backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…3e28backed Yes | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…3b57backed Yes | 41c | 36.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 36.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…891bbacked No | 59c | 35.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…4256backed No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 31.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb98…5466backed Yes | 41c | 26.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…4dfebacked Yes | 62c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…982cbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Netherlands finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Tunisia finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.