Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e85a53c51624e59f865fee2a5e8cf89f8a8d8904733d25b1064c5d6f602f714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester City FCof Manchester City FC, Crystal Palace FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Crystal Palace FC | 66c | 24,244$15,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,898.32 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 22,221$6,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,999.28 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Manchester City FC | 30c | 7,132$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,012.22 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Crystal Palace FC | 70c | 3,905$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.41 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ac…caedbacked Crystal Palace FC | 71c | 3,320$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City FC | 30c | 3,000$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.06 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Crystal Palace FC | 63c | 2,999$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.45 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Crystal Palace FC | 66c | 2,333$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.34 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 1,800$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Manchester City FC | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Crystal Palace FC | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Manchester City FC | 29c | 1,499$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.29 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…2eb8backed Crystal Palace FC | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Manchester City FC | 34c | 1,367$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.15 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Crystal Palace FC | 70c | 1,312$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.4 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d4…4f58backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 900$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 800$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Manchester City FC | 27c | 700$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Crystal Palace FC | 8c | 634.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Manchester City FC | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…7ef4backed Manchester City FC | 30c | 404.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.43 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…d049backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 323.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…16cebacked Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922a…e5eabacked Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…1be2backed Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Crystal Palace FC | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…5714backed Crystal Palace FC | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Crystal Palace FC | 69c | 253.62$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Crystal Palace FC | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…85bebacked Manchester City FC | 29c | 230$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 222.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 174.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…56a2backed Crystal Palace FC | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 151$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Manchester City FC | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Crystal Palace FC | 46c | 129$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Crystal Palace FC | 67c | 116.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Manchester City FC | 34c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed Crystal Palace FC | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…6847backed Manchester City FC | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Crystal Palace FC | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Manchester City FC | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 88.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester City FC | 39c | 78.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 73.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Crystal Palace FC | 70c | 73.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 379 | 58%220 W · 159 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 68.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…79ebbacked Manchester City FC | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Manchester City FC | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Manchester City FC | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Manchester City FC | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Crystal Palace FC | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Crystal Palace FC | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Manchester City FC | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Manchester City FC | 29c | 54.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Manchester City FC | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Crystal Palace FC | 74c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…1af0backed Manchester City FC | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…2151backed Crystal Palace FC | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Crystal Palace FC | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Crystal Palace FC | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 305 | 54.8%167 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Crystal Palace FC | 70c | 28.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Crystal Palace FC | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8b51backed Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Crystal Palace FC | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 219 | 65.3%143 W · 76 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…a560backed Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…9f85backed Crystal Palace FC | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Crystal Palace FC | 71c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.