Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f9eccf39e51f6145a6b40213b7a5cd0c03827a057396d0f78980440bb0da5e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 42c | 1,475$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.19 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 1,117$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 55c | 720$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.62 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…4473backed Yes | 24c | 556.29$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 18c | 499$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 440.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 77c | 349.01$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 45c | 297.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 17c | 242.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 59c | 217.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 199$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 58c | 189$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 183$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 80c | 166$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 164.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 159.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 143.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 14c | 128.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 128$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 107.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Yes | 22c | 87.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 18c | 86.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 70.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 54.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 64c | 52.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 30.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 26.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 23.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…e017backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 77c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed No | 77c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.