Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23428547586a4bc91ed7588ecf54a19becd1e15cd4e6ca67a9380528d69c460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 37c | 2,444$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.18 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 1,258$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 5c | 1,030$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 652.55$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.39 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.55 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…4473backed Yes | 40c | 585.66$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…f2fbbacked Yes | 7c | 453.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 50c | 350.49$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.24 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 58c | 340$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 300$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 300$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 267$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 214.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 213.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 9c | 213.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 202.04$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 51c | 163.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 155$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 154.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 154$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 146.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 57c | 131.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 35c | 130.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 126.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed No | 78c | 126.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 28c | 123.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 113.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 107.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 105.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…ab17backed Yes | 36c | 100.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 30c | 93.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 91.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 90.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 40c | 83.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 77.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 66.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 59.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 58.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 57.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 38c | 57.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 54.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 44c | 53.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 21c | 52.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 50.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 45c | 46.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 31c | 46.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 45.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 65c | 43.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 42.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…3277backed Yes | 38c | 41.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 65c | 40.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 37c | 40.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 46c | 37.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 37c | 36.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 39c | 36.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 39c | 35.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 33.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 33.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 29.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 28.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 59c | 26.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…0bb8backed No | 67c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 22.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 20.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 49c | 20.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.