Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbea307963ae77ab78f3d89c21bd3325de045e03c1d92c05a158adfcf842e92b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,101$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.03 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 31c | 644.43$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.2 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 600$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.39 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 68c | 577.36$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.43 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 545.95$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5a…24d6backed Yes | 22c | 473.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.93 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 310.12$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 268.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 245.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 241$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 43c | 229.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 223.92$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 13c | 165.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 159.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 152$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 144.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 132.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 129.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 59c | 129.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 40c | 123.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 104.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 104.35$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 69c | 95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 27c | 94.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 56c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 55c | 84.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 82.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 81.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 63c | 77.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…e196backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 56c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 62.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 62.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 73c | 61.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 56.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 54.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 54.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 38c | 53.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 51c | 50.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 48.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 47.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2c…3550backed Yes | 78c | 45.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 26c | 43.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 55c | 42.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…b802backed No | 71c | 38.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 58c | 36.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 34.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 33.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 31c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 31.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 30.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 68c | 30.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…ba62backed Yes | 53c | 28.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 60c | 27.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 26.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc61…5620backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…3507backed No | 71c | 21.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 55c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 17.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.