Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5012133329a4314966e1140dae6d0152c414742b49ee7dcf53b7a4e225097d71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 28c | 2,473$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.93 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…b066backed Over | 78c | 2,141$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…abfebacked Under | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 66c | 626.25$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.77 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 75c | 509.89$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.08 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 24c | 404.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.4 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Over | 76c | 323.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.66 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cd3fbacked Over | 73c | 269.68$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd62…a229backed Under | 28c | 157.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked Over | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…0db2backed Over | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Under | 25c | 98.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 61c | 76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 39c | 73.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Over | 36c | 71.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Over | 76c | 57.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Over | 78c | 44.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Under | 67c | 39.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…c3c5backed Over | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…5721backed Over | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…831dbacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed Over | 72c | 18.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 3.5this page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)BetBoom Team won
- Game Handicap: BB (-2.5) vs Aurora (+2.5)BetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.