TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$732,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$842,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $732,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team56c51,964$29,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,751.461,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Aurora13c33,339$4,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,192.2450832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora41c32,514$13,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,330.5728159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora40c28,884$11,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,553.7440051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora29c28,102$8,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,288.9128748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Aurora44c28,000$12,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,30011547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Aurora44c22,081$9,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,715.5415951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team60c21,168$12,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,480.696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed BetBoom Team79c17,592$13,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,747.083151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed BetBoom Team55c15,475$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,975.8318351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x377b…5cb1backed BetBoom Team70c12,420$8,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7261968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora32c9,201$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,969.9643344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora43c8,884$3,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.489741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora38c8,749$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,331.141,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora25c8,602$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12071454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora43c7,742$3,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,329.0436041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa00…f736backed BetBoom Team66c7,396$4,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,494.152070%14 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe705…f910backed Aurora44c7,248$3,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,188.974348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora41c7,164$2,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.3380256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora4c6,796$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.7740014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked BetBoom Team59c6,021$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.621,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora43c6,000$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.9955751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed BetBoom Team58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.9715544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Aurora1c5,555$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.55449.1%4 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…80c1backed Aurora15c5,435$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.09850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Aurora43c5,271$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.5522848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Aurora37c5,251$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.019630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BetBoom Team59c5,170$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.5415848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Aurora44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20029042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Aurora41c4,694$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.356637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Aurora43c4,498$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.2222644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed BetBoom Team66c4,177$2,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.6814443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Aurora13c4,000$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50525935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora36c3,979$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.8860552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed BetBoom Team58c3,852$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked BetBoom Team59c3,776$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.2234544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked BetBoom Team58c3,708$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.7341055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked BetBoom Team62c3,510$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.3899844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Aurora44c3,409$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.8516248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora42c3,243$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.871,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked BetBoom Team59c3,143$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.5595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora41c3,016$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed BetBoom Team59c3,002$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.0822647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe459…737dbacked Aurora5c3,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora25c2,991$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.041,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team71c2,912$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.471,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BetBoom Team70c2,765$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.1496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2d…4a62backed BetBoom Team56c2,762$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked BetBoom Team71c2,751$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.1317965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora34c2,486$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.2279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed BetBoom Team53c2,353$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.7815950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Aurora41c2,334$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.861745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed5…7f92backed Aurora46c2,119$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Aurora30c2,067$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.147046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed BetBoom Team78c2,016$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.389063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked BetBoom Team56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88015244.7%68 W · 84 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked BetBoom Team57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8601850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.9969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed BetBoom Team59c1,965$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.6631547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8654…6bfebacked BetBoom Team73c1,862$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.735100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Aurora6c1,830$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5610645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x788c…b7b6backed Aurora32c1,820$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked BetBoom Team64c1,750$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63013558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora43c1,750$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Aurora44c1,720$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.889948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Aurora33c1,666$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.782045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed BetBoom Team59c1,641$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.888042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Aurora3c1,615$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5129352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed BetBoom Team60c1,545$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.2172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…6873backed Aurora47c1,533$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed BetBoom Team71c1,533$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.0522853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed BetBoom Team64c1,528$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.2624955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed BetBoom Team61c1,512$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.6335062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64564744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…c72abacked BetBoom Team66c1,462$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.6611753%62 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed BetBoom Team63c1,450$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5fcb…f91abacked BetBoom Team56c1,450$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.981450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed BetBoom Team69c1,422$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.867862.8%49 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed BetBoom Team59c1,366$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.1749455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Aurora15c1,320$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4650347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Aurora39c1,316$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.0854445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked BetBoom Team61c1,315$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.9516547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BetBoom Team70c1,289$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.31,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed BetBoom Team59c1,271$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.1141351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Aurora43c1,250$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora44c1,250$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.9880544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora36c1,244$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.958258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed BetBoom Team57c1,231$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.2919742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora40c1,214$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.2272154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df3…53d7backed Aurora8c1,200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Aurora43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.998543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed BetBoom Team67c1,179$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.318954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Aurora42c1,169$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.0237945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f1…b254backed BetBoom Team63c1,049$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Aurora18c1,033$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2929240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Aurora42c1,019$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.6861456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f8…abfebacked Aurora44c1,010$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.6612049.2%59 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed BetBoom Team64c1,000$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.492479.2%19 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+40.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc19…0650backed BetBoom Team56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+83.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.