Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac vs Flavio Cobolli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x505922bf8ca963a019893532d3b899acbcab1b5e46365c8b0b0035af24bfe86d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Machac, Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cobolli | 61c | 2,890$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.05 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Machac | 57c | 2,645$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Cobolli | 79c | 2,070$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.54 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cobolli | 61c | 1,860$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.24 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Machac | 32c | 1,561$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Cobolli | 51c | 997$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.53 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Cobolli | 46c | 930.31$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.04 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Machac | 61c | 819.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cobolli | 37c | 562.48$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.48 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cobolli | 54c | 518.14$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.24 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Machac | 64c | 468.63$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Cobolli | 43c | 462.6$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.29 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Machac | 3c | 366$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Machac | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cobolli | 38c | 261.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Machac | 60c | 239$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Cobolli | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Machac | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Cobolli | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Machac | 52c | 181.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Cobolli | 49c | 177.78$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Machac | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Cobolli | 52c | 174.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Machac | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Machac | 60c | 143.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Machac | 60c | 141.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Machac | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Cobolli | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Machac | 62c | 123.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Machac | 16c | 103.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Machac | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Machac | 55c | 95.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Machac | 24c | 93.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Cobolli | 46c | 71.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cobolli | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Machac | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Machac | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Cobolli | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cobolli | 41c | 48.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Machac | 55c | 44.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed Cobolli | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Machac | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…d617backed Machac | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Cobolli | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Cobolli | 46c | 29.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Cobolli | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…4d93backed Cobolli | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…8236backed Cobolli | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Cobolli | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Cobolli | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.