NBA · resolved market
Gui Santos: Points O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50b22efa992f2247a73d5cba4cf2169c8e99574b97834b2196a725ebcb3ed97b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfca…8b3abacked Yes | 55c | 498.84$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 48c | 411.3$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.88 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 45c | 407.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.91 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 46c | 196.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…57febacked Yes | 54c | 179.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 46c | 133.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 47c | 107.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed No | 46c | 103.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Yes | 54c | 99.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 46c | 88.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 46c | 87.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…9f8fbacked Yes | 52c | 71.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…feb2backed Yes | 54c | 57.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d18…0037backed Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 54c | 45.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Yes | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Yes | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 135 | 39.3%53 W · 82 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-1.5)Suns won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jordan Goodwin: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Mark Williams: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Warriors vs. SunsSuns won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.