NBA · resolved market
Stephen Curry: Points O/U 27.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0293aaa04d955869d388f43f971c51f91777d72125da1e85d9816c98515649ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Yes | 58c | 2,535$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.9 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 41c | 1,834$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.8 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 896.15$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.17 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 857.4$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.34 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed No | 47c | 755.04$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.52 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dac…3b3cbacked No | 76c | 674.43$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 51c | 490$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes | 52c | 466.92$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.8 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 52c | 331.25$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 49c | 296.64$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 49c | 250.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 46c | 214.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 52c | 205.45$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 49c | 194.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 52c | 188.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…57febacked Yes | 52c | 185.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed No | 48c | 169.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yes | 23c | 169.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Yes | 23c | 159$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Yes | 23c | 159$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 50c | 155.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Yes | 23c | 152.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1ee1backed Yes | 51c | 152.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 48c | 142.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 48c | 139.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Yes | 52c | 112.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 50c | 102.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes | 54c | 97.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 47c | 94.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8137…ccadbacked Yes | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…bae9backed Yes | 53c | 92.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 47c | 88.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…5f1fbacked Yes | 52c | 88.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Yes | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -11.8wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked No | 50c | 53.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Yes | 51c | 52.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed No | 48c | 50.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed No | 51c | 49.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Yes | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 53c | 44.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 50c | 43.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 48c | 42.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7c…ea1bbacked Yes | 50c | 40.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9659backed Yes | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad7…ae7ebacked Yes | 52c | 37.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed No | 53c | 36.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3957…1608backed Yes | 52c | 34.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 48c | 31.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfea…dc29backed Yes | 50c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…d1cbbacked Yes | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a46…69c4backed Yes | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 48c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 49c | 22.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 20.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 27.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-1.5)Suns won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jordan Goodwin: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Mark Williams: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Warriors vs. SunsSuns won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.