Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50cd40735975a2286dd4abf3329a64ee1bcca56b923b7ee95538eb616b732596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 14c | 1,421$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…747dbacked No | 76c | 251$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7713backed Yes | 43c | 232.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…0d66backed No | 7c | 211.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 37c | 139.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…300ebacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 57c | 98.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 73c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 28c | 73.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…212ebacked Yes | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 40c | 30.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | +36.4wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 70c | 25.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.