Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38370ae9933786a14fe72471c1a35cacf159fd4b51235c6cc4cb768d56695c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe1c…a8e2backed Yes | 3c | 9,586$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,167$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…23c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,991$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…0b53backed No | 38c | 1,347$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 76c | 1,173$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.1 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 1,090$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…7b31backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed No | 12c | 851.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.3 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…09d0backed Yes | 8c | 610.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 32c | 524.67$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.58 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 56c | 463.51$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 40c | 419.34$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.16 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b8ccbacked Yes | 66c | 409.75$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 56c | 379.81$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.87 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed No | 29c | 349.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +270.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…c127backed Yes | 72c | 325.02$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1116…1c31backed Yes | 78c | 322.52$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 76c | 316.57$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…79ebbacked No | 31c | 300$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 17c | 292.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.29 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…74e2backed Yes | 70c | 259.48$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.36 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…4625backed Yes | 69c | 245.95$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed Yes | 6c | 227.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 49c | 169.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 157.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…8646backed Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…752fbacked Yes | 79c | 140.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…8999backed Yes | 75c | 133.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9d60backed Yes | 24c | 125.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 16c | 121.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49c…1831backed Yes | 71c | 121.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49eb…4d1fbacked Yes | 76c | 92.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 85.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 44c | 76.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe773…74f8backed Yes | 72c | 69.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 63.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 34c | 59.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…82d1backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…4c41backed No | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +183.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9316…c00cbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked No | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…934ebacked Yes | 74c | 48.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…c308backed Yes | 72c | 42.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…1c37backed Yes | 72c | 41.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…fd84backed Yes | 72c | 41.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…5371backed Yes | 77c | 32.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +186%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…82abbacked Yes | 67c | 29.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…809fbacked Yes | 68c | 29.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab4b…c82bbacked Yes | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439e…f15dbacked Yes | 75c | 23.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.