Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a582ed7c69ba0a8277f6595942f174fcfa1a44f79e571b9fb5d2f791c7d28e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 30c | 5,052$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,512.83 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb07…13b0backed Yes | 54c | 2,517$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 7c | 2,100$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 1,221$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.65 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 44c | 1,000$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.05 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 71c | 785.3$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.91 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…3086backed No | 30c | 574.96$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +399.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…09d0backed Yes | 4c | 531.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 63c | 509.48$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.97 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 18c | 345.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.19 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…cf08backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 56c | 300$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 41c | 293.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 217.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…12edbacked Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 77c | 168.68$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 70c | 154.37$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 135.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…573ebacked Yes | 45c | 116.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…5e39backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 27c | 88.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 64c | 78.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…c28bbacked Yes | 40c | 67.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 75c | 66.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +267.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…a8a0backed No | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 42c | 57.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b8ccbacked Yes | 45c | 50.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…0f80backed Yes | 70c | 48.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Yes | 32c | 45.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…9aafbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed Yes | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 34.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf717…51e2backed Yes | 70c | 21.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…f477backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.