Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1deea613276688f44844760de08a413ffe1dcbc0cffc1df7bec5f5797b9e9cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x612e…8626backed Yes | 0c | 39,328$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…23c7backed Yes | 2c | 14,596$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1c…a8e2backed Yes | 12c | 10,205$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,008$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0737…5f86backed Yes | 4c | 6,333$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…0aa5backed Yes | 4c | 4,607$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…ed3ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,467$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 11c | 3,401$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.02 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 5c | 3,188$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed Yes | 4c | 3,093$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…0697backed Yes | 3c | 1,846$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…9b46backed Yes | 3c | 1,505$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,495$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 5c | 1,250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…09d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,219$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…752fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,095$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 10c | 1,040$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.86 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 10c | 960.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.8 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…cae4backed Yes | 3c | 895.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 32c | 821.42$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.58 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…1894backed Yes | 2c | 623.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 10c | 503.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.76 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9d60backed Yes | 70c | 480$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 448.82$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.46 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed Yes | 11c | 426.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e99…a10cbacked Yes | 5c | 402$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49eb…4d1fbacked Yes | 17c | 352.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 303.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…cf84backed No | 9c | 276.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,003.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked No | 8c | 200.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 7c | 187.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.28 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 29c | 161.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 8c | 143.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…5fa0backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…eeb2backed No | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…3086backed No | 11c | 91.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +399.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 73c | 51.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3632backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 38.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…934ebacked Yes | 71c | 35.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 74c | 24.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 75c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf717…51e2backed Yes | 77c | 20.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.