Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x524fa25d815e49b7ac1a07ef5af1c99e18bb71a3288869d6cdfd26d9532b5c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…e7fabacked Yes | 13c | 2,317$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +1,181.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,564$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,475$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.49 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,407$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 78c | 835.11$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.66 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…3086backed No | 41c | 643.69$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +399.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…b86cbacked Yes | 8c | 207.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…5e39backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b3…97f8backed Yes | 8c | 188.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc712…9d80backed Yes | 8c | 184.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 36c | 177.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b473backed Yes | 60c | 167.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…81d2backed Yes | 12c | 155.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4b…2b52backed Yes | 8c | 154.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…862ebacked Yes | 8c | 134.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 62c | 126.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +186%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 24 | 95.8%23 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 72cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…dbbabacked No | 65c | 75.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +72%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 58c | 59.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 49c | 47.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 73c | 46.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes | 33c | 45.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 43.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed No | 40c | 37.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…fbecbacked Yes | 55c | 36.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked Yes | 47c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29e5…8b3bbacked No | 41c | 30.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed Yes | 53c | 21.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…7c57backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.