Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fd38c96dc2e06caf606ce36163fa25c6083bdca3143c4decf3d81c7d57b80ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 7,693$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 46c | 1,904$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.41 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 57c | 1,738$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 1,130$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.04 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e0…ad22backed No | 3c | 1,067$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…226cbacked No | 26c | 928.96$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 4c | 638.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed No | 3c | 520$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…8999backed Yes | 65c | 453.77$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 43c | 435.65$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 41c | 337.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 24c | 311.74$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 20c | 288.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 33c | 234.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 61c | 214.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…c0cdbacked No | 37c | 199$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…212ebacked Yes | 78c | 191.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 158.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f00fbacked No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…30d5backed No | 43c | 137.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7343…40c6backed No | 18c | 109.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…a86bbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…bd59backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 89.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 29c | 83.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d4…4e29backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…04b9backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 59c | 45.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb130…cfacbacked Yes | 76c | 43.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 62c | 24.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8983…12a8backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.