NBA · resolved market
Will Jayson Tatum play a game this season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50d05e5e5f1902034b7de3977a8d161f836a3bdc7993a1f36f5a780ca99dc8b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,911 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72a1…1950backed No | 20c | 1,590$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.98 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 13c | 1,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked No | 39c | 362.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…4253backed No | 18c | 292.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 23c | 238.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed No | 79c | 225$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.35 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…fc0dbacked Yes | 55c | 220.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…aeb7backed No | 13c | 188.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 187.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 12c | 165.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3785…5c5fbacked No | 13c | 150.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 59c | 149.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 149.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…2220backed Yes | 70c | 143.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Yes | 70c | 143.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 50c | 131.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 101.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…2688backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -9.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…1435backed Yes | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 61c | 68.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…0320backed No | 30c | 66.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 30c | 50.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b6…4068backed Yes | 62c | 34.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 73c | 31.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0033…3f54backed Yes | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…7c0ebacked Yes | 67c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 71c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.