Tweets · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet 50-99 times Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51087356c5d3d7278bd7b3b6a8ebe8845905cec1a66c701c8cf19eb875189195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 28c | 612.13$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked Yes | 53c | 458.44$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 63c | 289$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2b…51ebbacked No | 39c | 247.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed No | 54c | 238.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 25c | 226.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8e…ed5dbacked Yes | 54c | 221.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 215.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 55c | 177.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 68c | 168.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 22c | 142.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 53c | 92.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…64b1backed Yes | 51c | 77.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 68c | 69.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 78c | 64.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 64c | 54.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 51.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 47.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 42c | 42.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 78c | 41.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6792…766fbacked Yes | 79c | 38.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 64c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked No | 70c | 27.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed5…7deabacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01fd…e674backed Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kanye tweet 50-99 times Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Kanye tweet 10-49 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 100-199 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 200-399 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 400 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Kanye tweet less than 10 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.