Movies · resolved market
Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520beefc904cc5058f40a8d6454f4f97bca0681c2ecacb8096067ad3b49fcbe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 9c | 5,682$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.53 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 32c | 1,441$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.18 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 837.32$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.17 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 8c | 383.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 356.61$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…46c0backed Yes | 7c | 315$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 6c | 275.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 254.72$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 8c | 224.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 58c | 210.66$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 7c | 154.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 30c | 148.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 137.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…7cc0backed Yes | 67c | 136.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…9cb8backed Yes | 75c | 133.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a12…37cabacked Yes | 29c | 96.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 37c | 92.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 88.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…c6e3backed Yes | 62c | 67.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 42c | 62.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 25c | 49.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…f553backed No | 64c | 29.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1500…2105backed Yes | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?this page
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?Yes won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.