Movies · resolved market
Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37db8928d2282cfa7a55e851b84da3cb0131483c5c05469541873dd41c9b8b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 47c | 3,031$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.61 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,705$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 56c | 1,400$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 1,054$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 24c | 1,002$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.61 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 15c | 746.37$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 22c | 724.6$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.24 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 43c | 678.39$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.93 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 54c | 635.02$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.91 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 69c | 447.01$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.55 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 445.46$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.43 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 76c | 397.5$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 8c | 307.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 76c | 299.99$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.51 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 9c | 299.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 287.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 10c | 285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 10c | 285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 238.78$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 224$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 30c | 154.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 8c | 146$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…b1debacked Yes | 27c | 122.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 109.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 75.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 53.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…6229backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 20.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…8c5bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 77c | 15.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?this page
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.