MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x529f150fb78a592ff8e4cda0fc61448fafd47cb534e7a3244077195acc80d4ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof San Diego Padres, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 18c | 8,760$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 6,818$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 4c | 3,266$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 5c | 3,166$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.63 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Athletics | 56c | 3,004$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.74 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 56c | 2,782$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…ccbebacked San Diego Padres | 9c | 1,647$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 56c | 999.98$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Athletics | 56c | 768.56$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.17 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 56c | 550.49$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.71 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 65c | 261.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 55c | 244.44$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 225.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 205$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Athletics | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 58c | 120.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 109.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 104.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Athletics | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 73.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Athletics | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Athletics | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Athletics | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 46.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Athletics | 57c | 27.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Athletics | 57c | 18.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 69c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Athletics | 78c | 14.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresAthletics won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.