MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbf7408902d1ae546bf87c82a5058da45f1e86c1e49569d7c577f44989ea5644
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 7,997$5,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 6,780$2,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,584.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 4,182$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 49c | 3,314$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.86 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 3,263$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 41c | 3,141$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.73 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 72c | 1,780$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 1,741$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 54c | 1,252$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 1,050$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 27c | 1,043$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.66 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 51c | 1,015$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.32 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 941.02$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 50c | 775.64$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.82 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 712.78$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 26c | 436.24$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 55c | 363.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 339.61$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 258.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 26c | 214.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 72c | 180.54$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 67c | 148.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 26c | 132.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 50c | 123.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 58c | 101.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 35c | 99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 96.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 95.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 42c | 95.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 48c | 94.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 87.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…ccbebacked Under | 61c | 85.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 44c | 82.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 38c | 78.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…b31bbacked Under | 63c | 73.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 35c | 73.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Under | 46c | 65.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 78c | 61.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 25c | 56.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 72c | 55.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Over | 72c | 52.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Over | 25c | 42.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 33c | 40.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…6181backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 62c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 44c | 34.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 74c | 32.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 72c | 24.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Under | 66c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Under | 60c | 21.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 55c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Over | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…9831backed Under | 58c | 20.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 62c | 18.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 61c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresAthletics won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.