MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd34bbebad042dbd0c020962c5558a62799292ec2f521b8506f277921d863b35a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Athletics, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 50c | 16,895$8,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,411.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 9,489$4,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.25 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Athletics | 55c | 8,607$4,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,703.68 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 18c | 4,889$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.93 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 4,689$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.5 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 4,398$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,330.9 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 52c | 4,164$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.03 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 53c | 3,577$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Athletics | 37c | 2,854$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.46 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 2,614$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.15 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 2,082$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.44 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 2,000$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 1,962$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.39 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 1,430$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Athletics | 18c | 1,428$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.79 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 1,114$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.65 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 1,093$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.96 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…ccbebacked Athletics | 9c | 1,042$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 992.51$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.79 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 945.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.13 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 601.7$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.73 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 567.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.26 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 497.58$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.52 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 451.34$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.72 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 412$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.19 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Athletics | 15c | 295.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 54c | 289.68$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 281.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 252.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Athletics | 38c | 237.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 198.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Athletics | 56c | 178.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 141.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Athletics | 42c | 132.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 126.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 116.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 112.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Athletics | 41c | 108.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego Padres | 73c | 106.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Athletics | 22c | 100.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Athletics | 19c | 91.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Athletics | 18c | 88.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…9831backed Athletics | 48c | 78.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 22c | 78.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 77.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 75.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…b49abacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 62.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 61.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 60.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 60.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 71c | 55.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Athletics | 60c | 53.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…e602backed Athletics | 42c | 50.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics | 32c | 39.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 39.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Athletics | 42c | 33.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 30.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Athletics | 38c | 30.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 28.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 27.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 23.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 247 | 63.6%157 W · 90 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276e…e914backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 17.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresAthletics won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.