MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1239b2754227ba8ea6f469bc25fcac7a95f0461fc5ae0b082cbee6ec87cf0b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 7,316$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,315.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 70c | 5,172$3,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Athletics | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 2,429$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Athletics | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 1,376$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 46c | 1,294$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 63c | 1,198$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.08 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 1,079$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 1,077$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.92 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Athletics | 64c | 999.99$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.33 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Athletics | 21c | 726.92$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.64 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 56c | 568.43$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.87 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Athletics | 62c | 483.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 360.23$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 67c | 331.17$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 216.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 178.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 162.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 112.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 68c | 109.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 99.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 98.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 65c | 95.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Athletics | 57c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 76.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Athletics | 61c | 63.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 56.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 48.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego Padres | 21c | 48.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…9831backed Athletics | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Athletics | 43c | 42.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 37.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Athletics | 63c | 35.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Athletics | 61c | 34.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 34.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 34.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics | 43c | 32.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Athletics | 65c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Athletics | 62c | 28.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 66c | 25.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Athletics | 72c | 25.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 20.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Athletics | 59c | 19.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresAthletics won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.