MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x330ee5236e45c8ce1f6d301b9a52f0d4083955357a5d5426c2195a6ef60c0a01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 5,636$3,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,554.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 5,436$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.49 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 3,614$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 1,698$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 73c | 1,129$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 944.75$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 41c | 810.04$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.88 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 639.19$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 61c | 626$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 58c | 396.74$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.63 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 66c | 395.94$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 52c | 349$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Under | 53c | 322.58$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.92 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 295.78$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 257.59$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 245.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 213.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 57c | 207.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 205.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 54c | 183.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 44c | 163.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 43c | 123.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 44c | 113.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 23c | 103.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 38c | 81.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 80.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 59c | 69.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 51c | 59.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 56c | 54.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 61c | 53.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 49.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 40c | 46.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 38c | 44.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…e223backed Over | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 40c | 43.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 51c | 41.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 26c | 40.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Under | 33c | 36.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276e…e914backed Under | 33c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 62c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 49c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 57c | 29.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 41c | 25.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 41c | 25.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 70c | 16.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresAthletics won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.