MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdde72eec02b721fcb2a6b9fb8023fd82a7fdb7f56521b1baf071d534f4f9980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Athletics | 72c | 8,370$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370.32 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Athletics | 58c | 8,097$4,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,436.12 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 4,316$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 2,984$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.36 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 25c | 2,645$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 2,119$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 1,487$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.94 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 806$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 696.76$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.64 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 234.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 80c | 178.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Diego Padres | 19c | 132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 118.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Athletics | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Athletics | 72c | 63.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Athletics | 60c | 52.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 32.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Athletics | 72c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 26.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Athletics | 74c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresAthletics won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.