Movies · resolved market
Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a0336213212766979014eafd152b3dc9a7c02ddf59c502556b2d478b1c9538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 3c | 3,293$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 79c | 1,772$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.33 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 21c | 1,404$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.79 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,202$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 9c | 802.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 9c | 799.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 19c | 715.92$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 559.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 2c | 504.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 434.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 5c | 415$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 75c | 393.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 21c | 310$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77c…9095backed No | 35c | 274.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 266.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 77c | 261.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 22c | 212.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 205.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 11c | 188.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 66c | 159.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 21c | 137$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 14c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 69.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 24c | 53.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 79c | 45.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 24c | 41.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 64c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.