TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,899 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd871…6bbabacked Over56c3,375$1,881 inLost-$1,881.041656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under46c1,869$858 inWon+$1,011.773,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c1,143$549 inWon+$593.994,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Over55c739.72$407 inLost-$406.7816042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under45c733.2$330 inWon+$403.264,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Under46c732$337 inWon+$395.2851354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under42c636$267 inWon+$368.882,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Over19c529.68$100 inLost-$1002165.6%12 W · 204 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd2b…4090backed Over51c392.16$200 inLost-$2005364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under68c360.28$247 inWon+$113.531,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cf1…8277backed Over56c347.14$194 inLost-$193.6717236%62 W · 110 L-19.3wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Over32c313.56$100 inLost-$10014742.2%62 W · 85 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under63c294.25$185 inWon+$109.343,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b2…9141backed Over53c189.01$100 inLost-$1006453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under47c177.16$83 inWon+$93.893,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a26…dae7backed Over39c137.6$54 inLost-$53.841952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5737…6424backed Over37c133.47$50 inLost-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62da…2fdabacked Under47c106.38$50 inWon+$56.384557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over53c101.38$54 inLost-$53.733,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over52c95.93$50 inLost-$49.882,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under64c94.33$60 inWon+$34.3395452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x877a…7de2backed Over59c84.57$50 inLost-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Under43c64.81$28 inWon+$36.8591846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over30c54.15$16 inLost-$16.168,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Under44c51.05$22 inWon+$28.596841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f89…f3eabacked Over54c38.43$21 inLost-$20.754454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under45c38$17 inWon+$20.95,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Over47c35.79$17 inLost-$16.919435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe371…466abacked Over50c28$14 inLost-$1411642.2%49 W · 67 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Over51c27$14 inLost-$13.7761939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3c9…2669backed Under49c27$13 inWon+$13.776847.1%32 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa989…3fefbacked Under48c24.5$12 inWon+$12.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Under47c23.58$11 inWon+$12.5245653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.