NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa30217804829997d68677ee3ea8d1cfbf064447bb11f53cc1ecaa41669bd7fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 11,391$5,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,898.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 51c | 8,799$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,479.05 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 5,767$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…08a9backed Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 1,715$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 983.72$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.39 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 49c | 973.1$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.28 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 923.49$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 53c | 903$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.59 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 706$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Over | 51c | 561.33$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.27 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 429$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 397.95$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.93 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 259.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Under | 48c | 215.58$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Over | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…a62ebacked Over | 52c | 171.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa88…9ff5backed Over | 52c | 112.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…9e29backed Over | 52c | 103.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 52c | 99.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…1c1dbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f0…7d99backed Over | 52c | 37.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Magic won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Magic vs. LakersMagic won
- Magic vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Magic vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Magic vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Magic vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Magic vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Magic vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.