TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Phillies vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Phillies, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,417,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,485,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,417,254 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe785…e106backed Nationals37c1,110,099$415,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694,178.024854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Phillies63c905,247$567,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567,059.131,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Phillies62c142,317$88,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,236.6822852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef4…412cbacked Nationals42c60,000$25,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,806.048540%34 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Phillies58c36,258$21,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,00241747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df7…522dbacked Phillies62c26,315$16,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,315.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Nationals37c20,459$7,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,889.3160249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Phillies62c19,167$11,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,883.5423545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Phillies50c12,152$6,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,118.1854345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Nationals38c11,014$4,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,809.6433845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Phillies58c9,576$5,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,566.622,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Phillies62c9,197$5,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,736.4735952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe878…2143backed Phillies73c7,207$5,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,251.471030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-50%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Phillies63c7,120$4,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,485.623455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Nationals36c6,927$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.8434245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Phillies59c6,220$3,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,671.321,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Phillies63c6,116$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,829.752,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Phillies62c5,734$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,555.0843654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Phillies63c5,390$3,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,383.211,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37be…c646backed Nationals43c4,215$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,393.156450%32 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Phillies63c4,165$2,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623.9573352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Phillies63c4,091$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,577.329560%57 W · 38 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nationals37c3,584$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,257.8470946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals36c3,309$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.811,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Phillies62c3,203$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.0125453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Nationals37c3,078$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.756451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Nationals34c2,970$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.7411051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Phillies62c2,870$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.243949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Phillies68c2,861$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.7443946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Nationals76c2,435$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.325551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Phillies63c2,390$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.0134550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals41c2,263$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.549,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Phillies65c2,222$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.2598149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies42c2,120$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.5592754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4950…0031backed Nationals37c2,005$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.175644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Nationals40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20022047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Phillies64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77fb…849ebacked Phillies62c2,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2305743.9%25 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Phillies68c1,781$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.0825454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals38c1,579$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.9595930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f2…edf8backed Phillies64c1,507$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.484955.1%27 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Phillies34c1,487$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.836845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f5d…67a4backed Phillies63c1,284$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.93966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4981…5176backed Nationals38c1,279$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.781030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd805…0d78backed Phillies63c1,250$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Phillies59c1,234$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.741,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Phillies61c1,149$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.126056.5%147 W · 113 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b5c…9038backed Nationals35c1,143$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Phillies63c1,104$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.521,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Phillies46c1,047$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.1866645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c4…f5f2backed Nationals35c1,029$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Nationals30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70030850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…450ebacked Phillies65c922$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Phillies65c878.54$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.1868769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49b2…b373backed Phillies65c878$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.7650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Phillies63c857.5$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.237164.8%46 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Phillies62c806.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014453.5%77 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Phillies37c792.87$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.932754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Phillies64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc06d…6670backed Nationals35c771$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.15850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Phillies27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Nationals49c699$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.4951953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Phillies65c690$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.55950.8%30 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Phillies23c618.52$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.268042.5%34 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Phillies64c600$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38421656%121 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb08…c038backed Phillies65c600$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Phillies57c567.47$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32138444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc624…106abacked Nationals36c565.05$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.631662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Nationals38c550$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34127733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Phillies56c548.68$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.576456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…26f9backed Phillies65c543$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01d3…82c0backed Phillies63c523.81$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdec…17a2backed Nationals38c523.68$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.68450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8f6…1e55backed Phillies62c511.11$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.891533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Phillies63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31588549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Phillies63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3152835.7%10 W · 18 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-37.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x74c4…4493backed Nationals38c450$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28017850%89 W · 89 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Phillies51c439$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5447745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x251b…143cbacked Phillies62c403.23$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021753.9%117 W · 100 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Phillies17c402.47$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ed…c62dbacked Nationals37c400$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4583…0bb9backed Phillies63c393.65$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24812552.8%66 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals73c392$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.181,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Phillies62c387.1$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24021242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Phillies63c366$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.5834051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d79…9c76backed Nationals37c350$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals34c349.94$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.9683248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals38c342.79$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.531,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df7…baefbacked Phillies67c329.85$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Phillies63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006243.5%27 W · 35 L-9.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Phillies64c312$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.681,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Phillies65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Phillies35c307.69$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6931347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6579…088bbacked Nationals65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.69955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals34c299.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7836…6bc4backed Phillies68c294.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011331.9%36 W · 77 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Nationals39c282.03$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.041,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Nationals38c280.5$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9146631.1%145 W · 321 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Nationals35c277.14$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1499951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.