Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x533ced64fe59d89549ff34771fb3e766b152f5df263bce525911fff03ce349a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 0c | 4,674$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 718.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 528.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 473.12$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 45c | 442.75$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.09 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 424.41$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 76c | 393.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 337.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 24c | 333.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 286.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 277.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 56c | 250$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 74c | 168.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 167.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 13c | 166.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 43c | 115.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 51c | 112.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 38c | 110.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 101.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 89.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 75c | 79.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 78.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 21c | 64.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 62.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 40c | 41.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 37.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 72c | 29.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 27.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc971…731ebacked No | 63c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 23.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.