Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539300e1dfe1c61bbdf6890635f265fd5f1b43c1a386e75e0e5618df74c55ee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 7c | 6,794$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.84 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 4,756$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 0c | 2,766$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…bdbabacked Yes | 29c | 492.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 309.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 225.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 65c | 188.83$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 172$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 162.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 125.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 51c | 123.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 43c | 117.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 34c | 115$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 45c | 111.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 63c | 83.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 69.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 68.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 48.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 46.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 45.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 44.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 36c | 41.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 31c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…5919backed Yes | 77c | 38.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 36.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 64c | 36.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 35.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 31.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 30.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 29.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 28.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 21.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 69c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.