Asian League · resolved market
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53cfdc70233e2e109930eb66a881257cbfb4c591b89a1f041786a96991308258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 6,630$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,697.56 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 22c | 2,029$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.51 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 20c | 1,502$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.15 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Over | 32c | 1,344$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 29c | 1,096$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 77c | 1,017$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Under | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.2 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +14.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 71c | 998.43$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.3 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 22c | 997.87$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.78 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 17c | 958.19$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.27 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 55c | 893.53$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 80c | 837$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 714.1$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.61 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 75c | 661.79$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 625.95$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.98 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 76c | 500$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.57 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Over | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Over | 76c | 500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Over | 76c | 500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 76c | 500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 27c | 364.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.89 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…fb61backed Under | 28c | 356.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 73c | 215$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 25c | 207.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 59c | 199.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…547ebacked Under | 15c | 197.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 17c | 196.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 75c | 191.95$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Under | 70c | 187.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 73c | 171.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 27c | 153.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 9c | 151.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Under | 72c | 144.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 11c | 107.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 43c | 103.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 25c | 99.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 99.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 74c | 98.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Under | 12c | 90.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 64c | 86.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 28c | 82.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 27c | 80.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -11.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 58c | 71.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…cf88backed Over | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 73c | 47.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…be85backed Under | 38c | 47.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Over | 29c | 41.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 70c | 34.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Over | 75c | 33.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -6.6wins | -0.55per pick | 64cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…58fdbacked Under | 45c | 29.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…f982backed Over | 75c | 28.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…a04bbacked Under | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…fc0ebacked Over | 74c | 25.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…57c9backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…0d07backed Over | 62c | 19.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…328cbacked Over | 68c | 15.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Over | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 2.5this page
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Under won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.