Tennis · resolved market
Dimitrov vs. Fery: Match O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53ddd85b7eb349075d90508e884bda590586809864ba50886afeb38419aa307e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 633.79$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.07 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 52.1%342 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 39c | 453.43$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.84 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 57c | 313.02$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Over | 61c | 252.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Over | 46c | 240$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 35c | 224.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 57c | 207.59$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Under | 43c | 188.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 110 | 24.5%27 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Over | 61c | 181$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 67c | 166.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 62c | 150.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Over | 67c | 148.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under | 52c | 120.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 41c | 110.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…eb31backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Over | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Under | 52c | 98.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 51c | 85.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Under | 43c | 82.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 60c | 75.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 171 | 52.6%90 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 47c | 69.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Under | 49c | 60.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Over | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 48c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Under | 52c | 37.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…f51dbacked Under | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Under | 42c | 35.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 58c | 23.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dimitrov vs. Fery: Match O/U 40.5this page
- Dimitrov vs. Fery: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Grigor Dimitrov vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Grigor Dimitrov vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs FeryFery won
- Set 2 Winner: Dimitrov vs FeryDimitrov won
- Set 3 Winner: Dimitrov vs FeryDimitrov won
- Set 4 Winner: Dimitrov vs FeryFery won
- Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5)Fery won
- Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-2.5) vs Fery (+2.5)Fery won
- Set Handicap: Fery (-2.5) vs Dimitrov (+2.5)Dimitrov won
- Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur FeryArthur Fery won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.