Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53fc96d38c9956e853fd8f19c48c8e38ec9cfae378588f5d840e09b71ce0b083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 46c | 760.8$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.56 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 474.07$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 36c | 462.22$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.53 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 394.54$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 372.41$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 253.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 38c | 237.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 214$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 209.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 198.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 53c | 193.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 47c | 186.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 40c | 183.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 134.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 42c | 120.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 120.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 97.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 56c | 92.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 92.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 58c | 89.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 28c | 68.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 65.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 37c | 60.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 57.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 56.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 39c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 62c | 54.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 58c | 52.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 50.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 45c | 49.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 47.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 59c | 46.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 45.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed No | 44c | 45.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 60c | 40.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 36c | 40.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 40.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 43c | 37.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 51c | 36.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 46c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 30.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 37c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 50c | 26.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 50c | 26.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 24.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 51c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.