TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,829 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x060e…2384backed Under55c23,000$12,650 inLost-$12,6508037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over46c14,177$6,528 inWon+$7,649.423,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c13,244$6,093 inWon+$7,151.049,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under53c4,340$2,300 inLost-$2,30038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under53c4,157$2,203 inLost-$2,202.9632150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under51c1,559$792 inLost-$792.113,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over53c1,520$804 inWon+$715.588,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under47c1,485$698 inLost-$697.82,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over49c1,472$721 inWon+$750.722,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over45c1,166$525 inWon+$641.32,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over45c1,120$504 inWon+$615.765,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over46c882$405 inWon+$477.32,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over46c217.39$100 inWon+$117.3936649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over45c212.45$96 inWon+$116.852,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over51c200$102 inWon+$98.152,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Over51c200$102 inWon+$9811137.8%42 W · 69 L-14.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked Under55c181.82$100 inLost-$1007440.5%30 W · 44 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under55c95.69$53 inLost-$52.632,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over55c90.91$50 inWon+$40.911,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over45c77$35 inWon+$42.3568940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa08a…ad51backed Over56c76.71$43 inWon+$33.753060%18 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over45c50$23 inWon+$27.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over47c45$21 inWon+$24.0239041%160 W · 230 L-32.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Under56c34.32$19 inLost-$19.2249358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Over44c34.32$15 inWon+$19.2222138%84 W · 137 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under52c28.78$15 inLost-$14.971,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over46c28.26$13 inWon+$15.2645651.1%233 W · 223 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.