NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa894bc89bda5e1a06cbc9348829e53403cf2ab8e248666b6718fd015347fb2c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Nuggets, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $330,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets | 50c | 298,790$148,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148,802.46 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Wizards | 50c | 240,770$120,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,385 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Wizards | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,600 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Wizards | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Wizards | 50c | 11,685$5,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,843.4 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Nuggets | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Wizards | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 50c | 2,700$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets | 52c | 1,887$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.13 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8520…2a3cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,425$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…0637backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Wizards | 52c | 813$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.54 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Nuggets | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 50c | 402$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…bceabacked Nuggets | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 46c | 367.09$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.21 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Wizards | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Wizards | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Wizards | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 400 | 35.5%142 W · 258 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Wizards | 39c | 163.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Wizards | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Wizards | 42c | 62.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Wizards | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Nuggets | 52c | 28.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc2…dd84backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Wizards | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.