NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47473e3ccc288478da27bf25c8f566dd1e7ef8e208a4a9d5011b2032e96d9abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 54c | 9,610$5,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,202.64 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 7,936$3,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,185.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 5,471$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 52c | 4,841$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 3,191$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 3,115$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.96 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 3,041$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.13 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 53c | 2,528$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.66 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 30c | 999.98$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 44c | 759.03$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 57c | 549.15$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.02 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 43c | 346.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 338.29$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.63 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 49c | 234.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 52c | 142$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 61c | 115.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 39c | 109$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…9bcabacked Over | 62c | 103.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…9277backed Over | 51c | 76.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Under | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Under | 51c | 58.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 55.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 61c | 49.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 47.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…84b9backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 53c | 47.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 47.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 37c | 44.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Over | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 40.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 33.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 48c | 30.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…1bc7backed Under | 52c | 26.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 63c | 25.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 58c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.