NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb8af36aa879a7b5605d272a341b5a120b0f06fb667d34632a98f0b165b19a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Nuggets, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Wizards | 56c | 30,788$17,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,412.79 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 44c | 22,055$9,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,808.52 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 41c | 17,491$7,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,186.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked Wizards | 62c | 13,266$8,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,989.76 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Wizards | 54c | 4,651$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.83 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 52c | 4,135$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…bf82backed Nuggets | 47c | 3,179$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Nuggets | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets | 43c | 2,874$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.96 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a0…62ebbacked Nuggets | 47c | 2,746$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 41c | 2,486$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.21 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…d090backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,435$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…d788backed Wizards | 53c | 2,432$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…585fbacked Wizards | 53c | 2,143$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4a61backed Wizards | 53c | 2,133$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Nuggets | 46c | 2,080$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards | 54c | 1,917$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.67 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…7da7backed Wizards | 53c | 1,853$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4314…7d74backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,624$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…a1b2backed Wizards | 53c | 1,423$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.81 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Nuggets | 48c | 1,010$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.8 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Nuggets | 45c | 758$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.1 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Nuggets | 44c | 500$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nuggets | 42c | 472.36$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…b1efbacked Nuggets | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Nuggets | 46c | 420$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Nuggets | 45c | 391$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 44c | 375.57$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 45c | 268.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.67 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…54d1backed Nuggets | 39c | 254.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Nuggets | 42c | 230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Wizards | 57c | 220.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Nuggets | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Wizards | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33fd…a585backed Wizards | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wizards | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Wizards | 56c | 116$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed Nuggets | 46c | 97.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Wizards | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…5685backed Wizards | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Wizards | 53c | 63.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Wizards | 55c | 61.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Nuggets | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nuggets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Wizards | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Nuggets | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…317fbacked Wizards | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…baf0backed Wizards | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.