NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe303f9913469f23d7f52501dc379f9d072dae6c6417cb174e69b85ebecaf82ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Nuggets, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Nuggets | 65c | 3,335$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.62 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 40c | 2,382$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.6 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 58c | 1,903$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.98 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 47c | 1,531$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets | 42c | 1,371$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.65 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,001$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Nuggets | 64c | 777$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Wizards | 58c | 494.12$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.53 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Nuggets | 35c | 379.06$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards | 33c | 356.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.37 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 33c | 330.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 40c | 305.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…cb99backed Nuggets | 12c | 264$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Wizards | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Nuggets | 69c | 144.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 62c | 70.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nuggets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…d581backed Wizards | 36c | 41.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wizards | 45c | 33.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…ff78backed Wizards | 67c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Wizards | 58c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.