NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4677ef7102ac71a857b3377124f1374110cbb1e2333356e490282e47409ad4b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Nuggets, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Wizards | 54c | 11,133$6,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120.96 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Wizards | 55c | 10,998$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,997.61 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 46c | 9,656$4,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,422.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 9,234$4,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,356.81 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,919.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Nuggets | 49c | 6,720$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Nuggets | 49c | 4,020$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Wizards | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.77 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,090$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.08 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 53c | 2,029$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.07 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Nuggets | 44c | 2,015$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.64 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Wizards | 51c | 1,570$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.29 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Nuggets | 49c | 989.8$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Wizards | 53c | 671.08$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.41 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Wizards | 52c | 576.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.94 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Wizards | 56c | 552.82$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.24 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nuggets | 44c | 479$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.04 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 61c | 366.57$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.57 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Nuggets | 50c | 314$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…aeccbacked Nuggets | 7c | 282.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 56c | 254.93$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.17 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 78c | 243.87$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 45c | 216.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Wizards | 52c | 215.58$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Wizards | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…586abacked Nuggets | 53c | 125.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Nuggets | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Nuggets | 45c | 109.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…2bb4backed Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Nuggets | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 29c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 47c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Wizards | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Wizards | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…53d6backed Nuggets | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 44c | 58.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Wizards | 57c | 52.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…43aabacked Nuggets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Nuggets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Nuggets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Wizards | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Wizards | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9713…8219backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…957abacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Nuggets | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards | 53c | 34.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Nuggets | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Nuggets | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nuggets | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Wizards | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Wizards | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.